FREE MLB Picks - July 21, 2008

Sport/Type: MLB/FREE SELECTION

Game: Toronto Blue Jays (Litsch) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Liz) 8:05 EST

Prediction: OVER 10 (+100)

Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)

Analysis:

Baltimore plays host to the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night in the opening game of a four-game set between these two teams.

The Orioles have been competitive this season and that success has come in large part to their bullpen. Their bullpen has posted an ERA of 3.49 but overuse has depleted their effectiveness lately.

The last six games have seen only Olson and Guthrie pitch at least six innings in their outings. The lack of productivity from the Orioles starters has forced the relievers to pitch over 8 innings in just the last two games allowing five runs and eleven hits. They gave up two runs and four hits in 3 2/3 innings of work in a 5 to 1 loss to the Tigers on Sunday.

Baltimore will send Radhames Liz to the bump on Monday with his 3-2 record and 7.57 ERA. The right-hander is coming off the worst start of his brief career, allowing eight runs and six hits in 2 1/3 innings as Baltimore lost 12-1 to Boston on July 12. He's failed to go at least four innings in three of his eight starts, and has never pitched more than 6 1/3 in his career. Liz also has given up 12 runs in six innings while losing his last two starts.

Toronto will send Jesse Litsch to the hill with his 8-6 record and 4.16 ERA. Over his last two starts we see his ERA has skyrocketed to 10.13 while losing both starts.

After beginning the season 7-1, Litsch has won once in his last eight outings. The right-hander gave up eight runs three of those earned and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings as Toronto lost 9-4 to the New York Yankees on July 12. Litsch is 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA in three starts against the Orioles.

Data base research supports our selection on the Over in tonightʼs contest between the Orioles and Blue Jays. Toronto is 4-1 Over their last 5 when their opponent allowed at least 5 runs in their previous game, 10-3 Over their last 13 versus the AL East, 8-3 Over their last 11 road games versus right-handed starters, 13-5-1 Over their last 19 versus right-handed starters overall. Baltimore is 10-2-2 Over versus the AL East, 22-6-3 Over their last 31 after suffering a SU loss, 10-3-1 Over their last 14 after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous game, 23-7-1 Over their last 31 as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 19-7-1 Over their last 27 overall and Liz is 10-1 Over his last 11 starts overall. SERIES: 12-1 Over their last 13 overall and 5-1 Over their last 6 played in Baltimore.

Our Pitcher Power Index indicates Liz will allow the Blue Jays to plate 5.6 runs while Litsch gets touched for 6.1 runs in tonight's contest. Our Team Power Index Ratings predict an Over in tonightʼs game with a final score of Baltimore 7 and Toronto 5.

The combination of poor starting pitching and the Orioles bullpen struggling should be enough to send this game well over the posted total.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* TORONTO / BALTIMORE OVER 10 (+100)

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